Sustainability System

The concept of an ever-growing economy only came into existence with industrial capitalism, and as that system exhausts itself and runs out of resources, we will simply revert to older, agricultural economic models of social organization.

Capitalism is like evolution. A great survival of the fittest mechanism by which a local optimum is slowly approached, but fundamentally less-than optimum structure. It allows unorganized societies to improve and survive (but not thrive).

As the oil runs out, it will start to look a lot like the middle ages - except semiconductor technology and jet engines will remain, and some oil will always be accessible, for some people.

If the food trucks stop running into a major city for longer than a week, then impermanence of our current form of social organization would become extremely stark. There's only so much oil, and climate change will slowly and inexorably overwhelm our ability to protect the mega-industrial infrastructure upon which our modern civilization relies.

Central economic planning (which, contrary to cold war rhetoric, can be at least as democratic as our current society) is just as important for the long-term survival of the human race as genetic engineering.

How could we design an economic system that could cope with a potential population stagnation or decrease?

It's called, sustainability. In the past, agricultural societies existed 'stagnantly' for thousands of years, and we can do so again if we can bring our resource usage within environmentally sustainable levels.

The population can't grow infinitely, which means the global markets must stop growing, or even start shrinking at some point. Unless technology stays one step ahead. Also, when there are less young people working, than old people to be fed, the pension systems will fail.

Supply and demand can be semi-independent of effects of population change. Pension system can be dealt in many ways. But the end result will always be heavier taxation or heavier burden on the employer/coporation.

It's natural that mankind would depopulate naturally, but the governments are running scared not wanting to be the first to let it go natural, hence this shitfest of immigration everywhere.

Because we wouldn't regress back to tribal villages or anything. No, the average person is intelligent and rational and a long-term planner and will continue to work for the good of society as a whole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_planning_%28economics%29

A world government runs everything. It allocates everybody their job and supplies them with a certain amount of credit for their work. It also sets the cost (in credits) for all goods. Credit is created in wage payment and destroyed when exchanged for goods. Every problem with our shitty free-market economy vanishes overnight.

One day we'll cure aging and disease. Every person will be eligible for the cure at age 21-30. You then live in your prime for 80 years. Once you reach 80, a genetically pre-programmed switch will be activated causing you to die painlessly. In addition to the genetic death switch, you will also be limited to two children, a boy and a girl. The first child can be either sex, the sex of the second child will be determined in utero and if the sex is the same as the first child it will be aborted. After your second child you will be sterilized.

Just leave everything as it is and let the markets deal with it. The hive mind is our only hope. Get rid of the government. Every bubble is the result of the government forcing people at gunpoint to support and unsustainable system. You don't need force for people to choose what is best for themselves.

Economists

In this day and age, economists have about as much merit as a homeless potato.

Peter Diamond on the Nobel Prize in Economics

When I met with him, he simply said there was no point in reading any more once a bad assumption has been made. That’s not the way I think of the world, so that simple offhand comment he made twenty years ago has always stuck with me.

Academic economists are far more adept at poking holes in other people’s arguments than in constructing solutions, at least on the fly. But somehow Diamond was able to work out in his head complex models that would take others days or weeks and reams of paper to solve.

One thing economists just don’t understand are people’s preferences.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/11/congratulations-to-peter-diamond-on-winning-the-nobel-prize-in-economics/

On the one hand, I like the approach. You may recall the "game" I describe (in my expert failure piece, for example), in which there are two decks of cards, one with a list of workers and one with a list of jobs.

On the other hand, it fails to capture some important dynamics about the problem of creating patterns of sustainable specialization and trade. In the real world, the jobs are not just sitting out there, looking for workers. Some job openings are like that. However, a lot of jobs first appear when (a) entrepreneurs start new firms or (b) existing businesses launch new projects or seek new capabilities. Not surprisingly, most of the increases in employment come from fast-growing firms, not from stable firms.

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/10/the_latest_econ.html

On April 29, 2010, Diamond was announced by Barack Obama as one of three nominees to fill the three vacancies then present on the Federal Reserve Board, ... On August 5 the Senate returned Diamond's nomination to the White House, effectively rejecting his nomination. Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the Fed, was once a student of Diamond.

The relationship to the current day U.S. is striking. One point he stresses is that subsidization of production can make sense and also that there can be real costs of converging to the lowest possible rate of unemployment too quickly. This remains an important "framework" paper for analyzing the interaction of search and aggregate demand. His other 1982 search paper implies that labor mobility will be less than is socially optimal. This paper on search theory shows that unemployment compensation can lead to better job matches, by limiting crowding externalities in the job market.

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/10/peter-a-diamond.html

Making fortune if you were immortal

A lot of films feature a bunch if immortal people that have somehow become rich because they have lived a very long time.

Say you had about 800 years to do it in- You don't die in 800 years, you need to be rich in 800 years. Not just anyone can do this. You have to have some natural skill, and a hefty amount of luck. An immortal could well try his hand at this for a few years, and even be successful, but the point is that an immortal can get to be massively wealthy WITHOUT any business acumen whatsoever.

Assuming I was born in 1200AD, I'd work to get a ship. Then buy and sell my way to fortune uncharted waters style. Once I had my fortune I would buy land. Probably would have to set up a deal with the Swiss banks to take care of my money, they are the only ones I would expect wouldn't try to screw me over and steal my money.

If you're immortal then its probably safe to stay to basics seeing as you have the time. I would get a loan, use it to start a business in whatever is doing well. Work and expand it over the decades. Eventually, if I had enough capital, I would try and diversify into trading. Personally I would try and have my hand in every type of resource trade around; oil, lumber etc. It seems befitting to an immortal, the influence over politics and the world would be astounding.

• Buy items that you believe will accrue value over time; cars, war relics, etc. Sell them when you feel the time is right to cash in. Probably keep some old stuff intact and sell it when it becomes of antique value, particularly art related things. Save money into an account under the facade of a family business or something, and let the interest build up. Maybe loot the chambers of dead rich people.
• If possible, I could 'invent' a life-boosting supplement by using some of my immortal essence/ genes, patent it, and sell it for a ridiculous price.
• Go to school, learn a valuable trade, work for 20 years, live frugally, invest all the money, move to country with favorable exchange rate, fuck around for 780 years, except realize 2 years in I'm bored, work on/off every few years for a few centuries, go insane, try to take over world, die horribly/be imprisoned forever (depending on flavor of immortality in question).
• Experiencing historical figures best I could after accumulating massive amounts of money and changing identities several times, crating a thesis about the nature of humanity. then, towards the end of my life, I would reveal my life to the world and publish a book.

If you've got 800 years there's really no incentive not to abuse the hell out of very long-term securities. Long term fixed interest deposits- why the fuck not? I also suggest committing a single high-volume crime (like a serious heist on a shipment of cocaine from Columbia), then plowing the money into real estate or a conservative stock portfolio. Make a career as a criminal, move up the ladder until I'm either a smuggler, a drug kingpin, or an arms dealer. No one would be able to have me assassinated, so I'm good there, and I won't die and leave my riches to my heir. Everyone will be wondering what the fuck is going on, but I can have them killed if they get nosy. Or I can make a big spectacle about it and shoot myself in the head to prove my immortality, so everyone will fear me.

I always get sad the contemplating immortality, everything you love withers away and you just keep going. I sigh enough at "kids these days" as of now and I'm only 20. I think I'd stop giving a fuck about money after about year 300 or so. I'd be an immortal Hobo. I can't think of anything worse than being immortal. You would just become progressivly more jaded, bitter, and apathetic. I don't know many happy, positive 90 year olds... I don't imagine being 900 or 9000 would improve their moods. It always young people that say life is too short. The elderly know this isn't true.

I always wished we lived that long, so you could learn lots of shit without dying before you can use it. But it's kind of sad how careful you'd have to be about taking risks with a life that long, not dying, not getting put in prison for life. That's how it was in Caves of Steel. Those Outworlders were beta as fuck. Sure would suck getting caught with a crime and getting like 150 years like Madoff.

Stories of money and how people spend it (Part II)

People who aren't well off buy iPhone 3G. Fine, it's a bit expensive but no problem. I'd hardly call a $2000 investment on a luxury item "no problem" for people with no money. But they don't NEED an iPhone. If they keep spending beyond their means like that, it's gonna catch up to them one day, until they end up going bankrupt or die from the stress of trying to pay bills.

Poor people buy these things because it is all they can afford. People who earn more think about buying stocks or a house, so they save. But poorer people don't even think about buying things like that because they can't afford it. They go out and buy new phones and televisions because it is something they can afford and it makes them feel good so that they don't think they are poor. While a person who wants to buy a new house thinks that buying a new television when his one is only a few years old is a waste of money. He sees that his money would be better put towards the house. The poorer person sees the money as either buying a television or nothing.

Contribute to the economy is a worthwhile way, dont buy useless bullshit that is made to break and be disposable. The average is to live beyond your means and thats fucking destructive any way you slice it. The government doesn't give a shit about debt, why should I? In case you haven't read the first part, communism don't understand the concept of fun. Unless of course fun includes criticizing anyone more successful than you. Because when the government gets into debt they just take more money from tax payers. While we are unable to do this ourself.

I know I buy myself gifts and shit all the time to cheer myself up. How much are these gifts? Depends on what I can afford. If there is one thing I learned from my dad is that the more money you have the more money you're going to spend. Most people can't save money to save their life. Which is probably why so many end up in debt. They are unwilling and just unable to change their spending habits so even if they get out of debt most likely they just end up right back there because of stupid shit. Nevertheless, Keynes tells if people spend more it helps jump start the economy. It's ironic isn't it?

If you have a lot of money to spend what's so evil about spending it? Buying shit you really shouldn't- no one is saying not to buy expensive things. It's more so why do people buy things that are beyond what their income is. People worry about money while others don't care and spend what they have now and even get into debt to make themselves happy. They don't think about the future too much and just figure that they will figure it out when they need to buy a new firdge or computer. While people like us don't want to stress out about having money issues. So we worry about money issues now.

Fin

Stories of money and how people spend it (Part I)

I know people who buy new phones, televisions, go on holidays, when they still owe money. I mean they make a fine salary in terms of the average, but their money just goes. Aren't people able to live tight because it depresses them or something? Why do so many people live beyond their means? Were human beings ever good? The reason America is in an economic downturn at the moment because people buy shit they don't need or can't afford. Because we're condition to think that buying shit makes us happy. It doesn't. Buy houses well above their income. Banks have to foreclose when they can't pay their mortgage. Also, for many people, having visible status symbols like a nice car, big TV, vacations are pretty important. Nothing wrong with that, though. It's great to have stuff.

No one wants to work and only be able to afford food and scrape by and survive. Because the point of living would be just to work to feed and shelter yourself. But there needs to be some kind of balance. People who aren't well off buy iPhone 3G. Fine, it's a bit expensive but no problem. Then then the iPhone 4 comes out, the rush out and buy that too. Why do they need to do this? What is wrong with iphone3G which is only 2 years old? The iPhone developers are upgrading something when they probably have a lot of other bills and expenses to think about. Capitalism is about productivity and volumes of products. Businesses do all they can to move as much product as possible. Where that means creating a culture of idiotic consumption, they will do so. American debt based economy ridden in easy credit, predatory loans, fiat currency, rampant inflation, etc. Most people are completely retarded with economics, which doesn't help.

Blaming an economic system instead of people who live beyond their means is the answer I always hear and it's a cop out.

1. The average person is taught no budgeting skills and a line of credit allows them to overspend perpetually
2. The average person being fucking retarded doesnt help either
3. Money is the worst thing humanity has ever invented next to crack and AIDS

It's funny because I used to think when I was an undergrad that when I got my fancy ecoonomics degree and started making tons of money, I'd be happy living in a crappy apartment and saving my money for a cool car. It turns out the expenses always scale up with your income. No cool car for me yet but at least I could eat sushi twice a week. Social status, upholding appearances, makes me feel better about myself, etc. If I was going to work just to pay off debts and bills I would just kill myself. The best thing I could do for anyone is recommend Economics In One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt.

If people can afford their wants what's so wrong about it? Why must I feel this urge to judge/ criticize others for such arbitrary reasons? Perhaps it is people like me who are the reason humanity is turning to shit.

Comic that just about sums it up

Does it really bother that people do such things to get enjoyment?

A lot of Open Source enthusiasts talk about how pirating is in fact counter to central ideals of open source. Someone in my class routinely preaches to me about it. We had a discussion recently that went like this:
Me: I believe knowledge and the means to operate it should be acquired for free, but Open Office seriously sucks. Instead, I pirate Microsoft Office.
Him: This is not sustainable, and actually hurts the mission of open source, which relies on a community that is committed to development and improvement.
Me: Open Office needs a lot of work, man.

I was thinking about this warez and pirated copies of things. The amount of effort that goes into creating these bootlegs is often staggering: tables of contents, crystal clear quality, subtitles, the whole works. Clearly, there is no monetary incentive here. In fact, the marginal utility lost in terms of time is itself quite large. Beyond seeking enjoyment, it's about a question of how to spend your time. Humans are horrible at this. Who is to say that they make rational economic choices? An economic profit is not the same as an accounting profit. Economic profit takes into account all costs and benefits, both seen and unseen.

It has a lot to do with the premise that information which many feel includes software in all it's formats including pirating of things should be free, and anyone and everyone should have access to it regardless of monetary value. Basically, people want things. To get those things, they have to do some things. Sometimes, money is involved; but it needn't to be. Money is simply a tool to gain pleasure. Pleasure is the goal. Benefit is benefit. People don't maximize income, they maximize utility. Thus, economics.

I had a professor that would routinely upload Microsoft and Mac OS among many other things on mininova. He was a programmer and believed in 'open source' all the way so he did that shit during class. One time he made a video loop of Willy Wonka in the Chocolate Factory. It was just Gene Wilder saying "You lose! Good day sir!" about 1000 times. He literally had it on full volume the entire class period, drinking tea, uploading illegal software onto the internet. Kind of a hero.

Eu 'get no job left in' rope

The better countries in Europe are post-industrial, knowledge-based economies. They make more money from services (finance for instance), innovation, engineering etc than production of goods. Countries like Spain, Greece, etc. are the poorfags of Europe because their industrial bases are crumbling (can't compete with China etc.) and they don't have anything much to offer in terms of knowledge and creativity. Spain specifically is in the shit right now because it was undergoing a false economic boom fuelled by overseas investment, people from the UK and Germany buying second homes there. Now that's dried up, they've got nothing left but hundreds of half-built developments and no jobs.


Europe is not a homgenous mass, and most of their trade is internal. This is why they have never been too bothered about US embargoes and such, and they have carried on trading with Cuba and selling missiles and superguns to Iraq, because it's all business at the end of the day. Europe makes guns, bombs, cars, beer, wine, food, computers, and all that other shit, and they exploit chinese and niggers, and that.


Well they are lazy and kind of entitled. It's all nice though. Europe is not better than America, it's the same, only you never see any of it. Because they keep it to themselves. Anything they produce generally they share with other EU countries, as it is tax free to do so. They don't do much export production outside mostly because only enough production for their own nation: they all have office, media or whatever jobs except the poor who are builders or plumbers which aren't bad careers for poor people. Just like America, the really poor and immigrants become bus drivers and street cleaners.

Being kinda just the same, Little Lover's So Polite